October 30, 2000 Grassroots Journal article by Allen E. Barr: Global Warming.
Is the earth getting warmer and if so, is human activity the cause? These two basic questions are at the center of the global warming debate, With an accurate, scientific approach to these questions we should he able to find the answers and make the right decisions.
Before I try to answer these questions, you need to know my background. I have a Master of Science in Meteorology, a Bachelor of Science in Meteorology and a Bachelor of Arts in Physics and Mathematics, I served as a Weather Officer for 20 years in the USAF, a Department of Army Atmospheric Scientist for nine years and four years as a Meteorologist for the Department of Commerce at the Nevada Test Site. My master
's degree work specialized in the study of the radiative transfer process in the atmosphere. Knowledge in this area of Meteorology is essential in understanding the physical process that is being blamed for global warming.The question of, is the earth
's atmosphere getting warmer, is of course relative. The earth is 4.5 billion years old and during that time the earth has experienced thousands of changes in its climate including at least five major ice ages, global cooling. The last ice age started about one million years ago and the earth is just now coming out of that ice age. Hence, it is only natural that the earth should be warming. However, do temperature measurements show warming? This is riot as simple a question as it sounds, and is one reason we are having this debate. long term, worldwide accurate, reliable weather records don't exist. At best, we have 100 to 150 years of data. But, much of this data is not accurate even in the United States. In third world nations most of the data is useless. We started developing a good database of surface temperatures around the mid 1950's. So, at best, we have 45 to 50 years of reliable data. This data does indicate an increase of about one degree Fahrenheit at the surface. However, Satellite data since the mid 1970s shows no warming. Again, keep in mind that we are currently in between ice ages. Therefore, we would expect warming. However, the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change has found solid evidence that indicates this is the coolest inter-glacial period the earth has experienced.Can the burning of fossil fuel cause global warm? The theory being used by those who say humanity is causing global warming centers around the greenhouse effect. The greenhouse effect, simply put, says burning of fossil fuel has increased the amount of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere. This increase of Carbon Dioxide absorbs (traps) more of the Earth
's long wave radiation and will warm the atmosphere. But, is this increaseted absorption of long—wave radiation enough to have a long term effect on the earth's heat balance?To understand what is happening in the atmosphere, we need to take a scientific look at the atmospheric radiation process. The atmospheric radiation process is extremely complicated. In fact, there have been books written that try to explain this subject. Atmospheric Radiation by R. M. Goody is the best; however, An Introduction to Atmospheric Radiation by Kuo-Nan Liou maybe easier to understand since Liou does not include the quantum physics aspects in his discussion of absorption.
The sun radiates energy through the entire electromagnetic spectrum. The sun effectively functions as a black body that radiates energy at a temperature of 6000 degrees Centigrade (11,000 degrees
Centigrade).The majority of the sun
's energy is radiated in the 0.4 to 0.8 micron wavelength band or visible part of the spectrum. The earth receives approximately two gram-calories per square centimeter, per minute of solar energy at the top of the atmosphere. This factor is known as the solar constant. However, the solar constant has been found to vary by 3 to 5 percent over time.This short-wave radiation heats the atmosphere and the surface of the earth. At night the earth radiates long-wave radiation back into space. The Earth, however, radiates at an effective temperature of approximately 25 degrees C (77 degrees F). A body radiating energy at this temperature produces radiation in only a part of the electromagnetic spectrum. That part of the spectrum is from about 0.8 to 100 microns. The earth
's radiation is partially absorbed by water vapor, carbon dioxide, ozone and methane, plus some other minor gases.Water vapor is the strongest absorber of the greenhouse gases. Carbon Dioxide has a strong absorption band centered around 15 microns with other weak absorption bands in the 0.8 to 100 micron region. Detailed study of absorption in the 0.8 to 100 micron region shows that nearly all the earth
's radiation (98 %) is absorbed in the 0.8 to 7.0 and the 13.0 to 100 micron regions. However, between 8.0 to 12.0 microns very little radiation is absorbed, This region is known as the atmospheric window. Radiation in this wavelength region is nearly transparent to all greenhouse gases.Therefore, even large increases of Carbon Dioxide will have only infinitesimal effects on the temperature pattern of the plant. Over its 4.5 billion year history the Earth has seen temperature increases and decreases of more than 40 to 60 degrees Fahrenheit All of these large temperature changes occurred before human activity could have conceivably had any effect on the atmosphere.
Perhaps in closing, it should be noted that the earth's orbit around the sun is not a constant and the period of variation is approximately 140,000 years. On December 22,1999, the Earth was at its closets point to the sun in 130 years. In addition, many other factors also play a part in the real or perceived changes in our climate, but space does not permit discussing these topics.
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Again, we will see where federal agencies that have been captured by the environmental interest groups such as Friends of the Bitterroot,
The National Audubon Society Earth Share, Earth First, Alliance for the Wild Rockies, National Wildlife Federation, just to name a few of the 100's of such groups, sing the song they are told to sing -- or else!Kathleen Marquardt, and others have pointed out that what the environmental groups are embracing is not true.
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Finally, there are hundreds, if not thousands of people in the scientific community that doubt that human activity is the cause of global warming. Two such people are Dr. S. Fred Singer, and Dr. Michael Parsons. A check of the global warming advocates will show that most if not all are government scientists whose future pay check depends on convincing Congress and the American people that global warming is a threat.